VILLAR MAY LOSE BECAUSE OF OVER SPENDING

VILLAR MAY LOSE BECAUSE OF OVER SPENDING
Political survey is a powerful tool especially when the results are overwhelming and almost the same. Villar’s camp may call this article baseless or bias, I don’t care. This simply serves as a wake up call to political candidates. I remember last year when Gilbert Remulla was interviewed regarding the TV ad campaigns of Villar, he said that it is the fastest way to bring the message to the people and they have to do it frequently because they do not have brothers or sisters who are actors or actresses. As far as three years ago, Senator Villar started the OFW strategy followed by a series of TRI-MEDIA  ads. His latest commercial “nakaligo ka na ba sa bundok ng basura” is a major hit among children.
Issues on how Senator Villar will recoup his campaign spending are pilling up. People  say no person in his right mind would spend billions of pesos for a monthly salary of P100k/month. This question is legitimate. However, it is not the issue at hand. The real question is this: Is his spending billions of pesos worth of political commercials effective or detrimental?

I believe Villars’ campaign was good at the start ( the OFW commercials). Even if he was allegedly spending more on showing his OFW campaigns on TV than the actual  help given, the fact is, he helped some OFWs personally. This good deed however backfired when the TV and Radio aired. There was too much “commercialization” of helping OFWs and sooner than expected, the people noticed the silent political agenda behind.

His latest commercial “nakaligo ka na ba”  is an instant hit among children but to thinking adults, it is just too good and too promising to be true. To me, this particular Villar ads is overstatement and overkill. At first, it was entertaining, lately it became annoying and backfired again. I don’t know if Villar or the people around him notices this, but his too much spending on TV and Radio commercials are backfiring. Because of too much ads spending, his image of being portrayed as coming from the ranks of the poor is changing to an image of “elitist”. History will educate us that Filipinos will go for the underdog, Villar came out of the list.
On a personal note, I believe Senator Villar is a good person and has achieved so much to deserve the  right to become the Philippine president.  His chances though is becoming slimmer because of his too much political advertisements. People are going for the “winnable underdogs” – Gibo Teodoro, Erap Estrada, Dick Gordon and surprisingly, Noynoy Aquino who managed to create an atmosphere of being the underdog of Villar.
Political survey results “supposedly” conducted “nationwide” by survey firms such as Pulse Asia, SWS and others serve merely as guidelines. However,  if the survey results are almost identical to the local and online survey results, then it now serves as a genuine guideline.  As a political analyst, I can say this… looking at the survey results, people are going for the underdogs and Senator Villar is not on the list. His supposedly intelligent think tanks should learn to go down from their level and begin talking to real people and learning from them.

In people oriented surveys ( those that are not commissioned or paid ) conducted in Colleges and Universities, organizations and associations  as well as in online blogs, forums and groups, Aquino tops the list followed by Teodoro then Villar and Estrada. In this results, Gibo Teodoro is the fastest gainer.
Today is March 05, 2010.  I will say this, if Villar will not change his advertisement campaign style, he will end up like former congressman De Venecia.  By April 05, 2010, the fight will be among Aquino, Teodoro, and Gordon. Among the presidentiables, Senator Villar will slide down as a preferred candidate. From Quezon city, to Divisoria in Manila, to Dagupan, to Baguio and La Trinidad, the word on the street is one and the same “nakakatakot magpresidente si Villar”. Indeed, his too much spending on commercials backfired. If only Villar could disguise and mingle with regular people in the streets up to the corporate offices, he will see that he has a big problem caused by his too much spending. And remember, it was word on the street that made Trillanes an underdog and later on a Philippine Senator.

And so I say…
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New Generation of online and inteligent voters

Since 2007, I have been very vocal about a new trend when it comes to political issues. A trend that changes political situations in this country. I am talking about the new generation of intelligent onliners. Thanks to the fast advancement of technology, information nowadays is easy to gather and disseminate.





Gone are the days where information is controlled by a few minds and entities. The traditional practice of controlled information is the cause why there is imbalance of power. Those who control the government and media oftentimes get what they want at the end of the day. But such practice is now limited because of the online generation. A recent example is the Ampatuan massacre. Normally, the government will release items for the media to feast or media companies will publish the story they wish. But that is not the case. The massacre was made known faster worldwide and the government and media cannot control the release of information to the worldwide audience. Simply put, hundreds of thousands if not millions of Filipinos are involved online and information is passed on faster than a blink of an eye.

Today, politicians try their best to gather as much supporters by creating their own websites that showcase their achievements, awards, projects etc etc etc. But the funny thing is that most of the online generation do not spend precious time visiting the politician's website. Why? Because its just a website full of texts, pictures and words. It's like an existing website with no contents at all. Onliners would rather watch videos at Youtube, search Google or do Facebook. The reason behind the online snub is the lack of interaction on the part of the politician. Setting up a website is not enough. Example, I have yet to see a politicians' website where the politician is featured in a video explaining and showing to his constituents the projects and the budget for it for transparency. The first Filipino politician who will do this will be rewarded the utmost respect from the online community. He or She might even become the President of the Philippines.


Politicians running for the 2010 elections should consider "the new generation of online voters" because thoughts, encouragements, ideas and issues are being discussed freely in the internet unlike five years ago. Today, everybody can express his opinion and influence others in a larger scale. Traditional tactics and even traditional politicians will not survive the race for the chair they are after if they will not act quickly to introduce themselves and what they stand for to the new generation of online voters. The mere formation of a group, associations, fans clubs, and volunteers in social networking sites like Friendster, Facebook and Twitter is not enough. Actual online interaction is needed.

I remember last 2007 wherein some forums I am active with were talking about Chiz Escudero and Senator Trillanes. There were so many ads, paid persons and groups posting articles about their candidates,  etc but at the end of the day, the discussion about the two individuals mentioned above spilled over to the homes of the readers then later on to the community. They were voted by the people. Especially Trillanes. This will also show the political thinking of the Filipino people, they go for the underdog and despises the blatant use of money  to campaign.

The rally for the expulsion of President Estrada grew to a very large crowd not because of the paid protesters or the "hakot" system  but because people were talking through text and online. There was a free discussion of political sentiments. Those sentiments were brought home, shared to the community and spilled all over, thus the large rally against former president Estrada came through. It was not entirely the fault of Angelo Reyes turning against Estrada or the powerful Makati businessmen. The people's emotions, sentiments, feelings about dirty politics had something to do with the ouster and the meeting of the minds and free discussion online sparked a debate that was later on carried to the streets. Estrada, being a traditional politician did not see the relevance of "the new generation of online voters". 




This is a new generation, a new time, a new league of intelligent voters. The smallest contribution we could give to change the Philippine political system is one giant step towards fixing our future.

This is www.WatWatWorld.com...

And So I say
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Copyright DMC, Quezon City
Political Scientist
www.watwatworld.com

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Is Gibo Teodoro leading the "silent voters" and why politicians should look into the "new battle field"

There's a lot of fuzz running around the online world. To start with, the largest chunk of voters are what I call "the new generation of online voters". As a problogger who practically spends 12-18 hours a day online, I see the presidentiables running their campaigns using different methods from social networks to advertisements. From the different online forums I visited, it seems that Gibo Teodoro has the lead when it comes to responses on posts about the presidential candidates followed by Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar. 


In summary, this is what I gathered from the different responses in online forums.

Gibo - is relatively unknown and was oftentimes regarded as President Gloria Arroyo's pet. However, in the past weeks, he is ranking up as one of the favorites especially by the younger generation because of his wits and the intelligence he showed in answering questions during presidential debates and forums. He presented the better answers and in a straight forward delivery. If he keeps this up, he will win easily. I saw this happen in the 2007 elections where Senator Chiz Escudero was the talk of the youth and eventually spread to the family and then to the community. Gibo is now seen separately from President Arroyo. He no longer lurks behind the shadows of the present administration.  

Aquino - is already popular by birth and has served as a legislator for almost a decade. He is also a good talker and his answers in forums and debates hit a point. However, his popularity among the younger generation is slowly diminishing because he is too much associated with showbizness thus belittling his capacity to run a country. In a presidential "cooking" show hosted by Jessica Soho, all of the presidentiables personally cooked their favorite dish except Noynoy who needed the help of someone. The popularity of the celebrity in the presidential candidates cooking show didn't help, it was a disaster. Reading closely at different discussions in online forums, there are comments that Noynoy cannot move by himself and must need pushing or advices. Again, this is not my personal opinion. If Noynoy does not change his strategy, his cousin Gibo will overrun him by a mile. 

Villar - is the presidential favorite years ago since he started the "OFW ads". However, due to his numerous ads and campaigns, it is but obvious that the new generation of online voters is having an overkill thought. For example, this week (December 15-20), Villar's political ads in ABS CBN, TV5 and GMA are so overwhelming that one would think the hundreds of millions spent. This is so noticeable because there were no other political ads played 24 hours aside from some Eddie Villanueva ads. Villar's commercials are now becoming annoying and questionable at the tune of hundreds of millions. Mr. Remulla is wrong in saying that the commercials are the fastest way to deliver the message to the people. What is being delivered is a negative impression especially to the largest portion of voters. The thing is, the so called advisers and analysts of Villar are looking to spend more millions to get the sympathy of the voters. This is wrong. Villar should instead show more guts and intelligence by joining presidential forums, discussions and debates. Remember, the voters today are watching every move and every word. Commercials alone is a big joke.


As for the other presidentiables, I still have to review and digest the online forums to give readers a good impression on the thoughts of the online voters. But I will say this again and again and again... the politicians running for the 2010 elections should consider "the new generation of online voters" because thoughts, encouragements, ideas and issues are being discussed freely in the internet unlike five years ago. Today, everybody can express his opinion and influence others in a larger scale. Traditional tactics and even traditional politicians will not survive the race for the chair they are after if they will not act quickly to introduce themselves and what they stand for to the new generation of online voters. The mere formation of a group, associations, fans clubs, and volunteers in social networking sites like Friendster, Facebook and Twitter is not enough. Actual online interaction is needed.


I remember last 2007 wherein some forums I am active with were talking about Chiz Escudero and Senator Trillanes. There were so many ads, paid persons and groups posting articles about their candidates,  etc but at the end of the day, the discussion about the two individuals mentioned above spilled over to the homes of the readers then later on to the community. They were voted by the people. Especially Trillanes. This will also show the political thinking of the Filipino people, they go for the underdog and despises the blatant use of money  to campaign.


The rally for the expulsion of President Estrada grew to a very large crowd not because of the paid protesters or the "hakot" system  but because people were talking through text and online. There was a free discussion of political sentiments. Those sentiments were brought home, shared to the community and spilled all over, thus the large rally against former president Estrada came through. It was not entirely the fault of Angelo Reyes turning against Estrada or the powerful Makati businessmen. The people's emotions, sentiments, feelings about dirty politics had something to do with the ouster and the meeting of the minds and free discussion online sparked a debate that was later on carried to the streets. Estrada, being a traditional politician did not see the relevance of "the new generation of online voters".


This is a new generation, a new time, a new league of intelligent voters. The smallest contribution we could give to change the Philippine political system is one giant step towards fixing our future.


This is www.WatWatWorld.com...


And So I say
.
Copyright DMC, Quezon City

www.watwatworld.com

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WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF YOUR PRESIDENT-CANDIDATE WILL WIN?

2010 Philippine elections presidential candidatesWhat will happen if a particular candidate will become the next President of the Philippines? If this is YOUR president, then you are responsible for whatever actions and decisions that he makes.

This is an article from a critique point of view.

To start with, there is this question: why will a candidate spend millions and even billions for an elective position that has a standard salary and will not recover the spent amount during election campaigns?  In short, will you spend for example 1billion pesos for a salary of P50K a month? No politician is that stupid. Religious or not, there's always a catch no matter who that politician is. Sorry.

President JC Delos Reyes, the youngest presidential candidate under the Kapatiran party. Principled and has a platform to follow. However, sticking too much to the Catholic religion during forums is a minus factor. So called Christians, Muslims and other religious sects will find it hard to vote for JC. Of all the presidential wannabees, JC Delos Reyes has the cleanest background. But, if he wins as the president, at least I can see a new reform from a principled of politician.

President Eddie Villanueva, a political professor turned religious leader. Has a solid background on Philippine political studies and a huge religious following under the Jesus Is Lord movement. Just like JC Delos Reyes, Villanueva is associated closely to a religious movement, so no matter how good his platform is, his chances of winning is slim. The Philippines is a country somewhat controlled by religious leaders and by such having a dominance over a certain sector of the society is a must. Therefore, no religious denomination will let itself be under the control of another. It a matter of pride and numbers. In Villanueva's case, he may have a good program, but he must first please other religious communities. But if he will win as the president, I don't know... maybe this country will turn into a God fearing nation.

President Bayani Fernando, has always used the words "political will" as a campaign slogan. He has done some changes in Metropolitan Manila as the former MMDA chairman. Often times, misunderstandings with the city mayors come up because his decisions are unpopular. However, he implemented his projects regardless of its unpopularity. Unless he gets help from the "new generation", his chances of winning is slim. Having a following in Metro Manila alone will not ensure him of a presidential seat. But if he wins as the president, there will be control and chaos at the same time. Practicing the power of political will has its own downsides.

President Noynoy Aquino, is considered the big name to beat in the race for that presidential seat. Regardless of how he or his sister defends his rise to popularity, the fact remains that he became a presidential candidate out of the popular shadows of his parents. He can win any seat aside from presidency using his family name alone. He has a large arsenal of yellow followers and a party with numerous political turncoats. He may stand a chance in the race. However, a question remains on his capacity to run a country. But if he will win as the president, I see no major change. Same old politicians with new party alliance is not a solution and oftentimes party objectives become a mere piece of paper. Also, there is a big possibility that showbiz personalities end up in key government positions instead of those who are learned and qualified. But then again, maybe Noynoy can deliver a change outside of the box that we see, Obama style.

President Erap Estrada, is old news with new partners. He has the biggest legal battle to face if he wins as president. Relying too much on the "masa power" today may not deliver the desired number of votes. But if he wins as the president, his time will be divided in taking care of the country and attending to the legal cases filed against him. Also, he has to guard his vice president 25hours /day.

President Manny Villar, is the big spender. Allegedly, he already spent close to a billion pesos on TV, radio and print ads. More often than not, during interview,  all you can hear from him is his story from being poor in the market and streets of Tondo  to becoming rich due to Real Estate and Development Contracts. He has a strong following and party affiliates. Considering his money and machinery, he maybe able to pull this off. However, the question on "ROI" is running along his side. Some say that since he is a contractor and developer, all contracts will run a tele novela bidding and contracts will be awarded to his favor. His intentions maybe good, but it remains to be seen. But if he wins as the president, there maybe some advantages because for one, development will surely be on the upswing. Roads and bridges will be concreted, big buildings, real estate developments. The downside is that he is not seen as pro agriculture, in fact he does not discuss pro-agriculture issues. Between a pro developer and a pro-agriculture, which will you choose?

President Gilbert Teodoro, called as "mr. dapat" because of his political commercials. He has the backing of the present government and the powerful machinery of the largest Philippine political party. His intentions to become the president maybe good but it seems he is having a hard time shaking off his closeness with the current and unpopular president. It's like new cover for an old news. In the election field, it is a minus minus. However, of all the presidential candidates, I believe that his wits and intelligence is useful in running a country. He answers questions intelligently and has ready answers even for the difficult ones. It's just so sad he is running under the unpopular party. But if he will become the next president, he may do fine so long as he does not have to pay so much political debts just like the present one.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, if your president will win and he acts not according to your expectations... you will be the one to be blamed. If the country falls apart, you blame yourself. Remember, in this election period, NOTHING SEEMS TO BE TRUE and EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE RIGHT. In tagalog: Lahat ng kadidato mabait kasi may kailangan sila sa iyo, pero pagkatapos ng election, hinde ka nila kilala.

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